Prediction Markets 101

What is a Prediction Market?

A prediction market is a financial exchange where people trade on the outcome of future events. Unlike a poll where you vote with no stake, in a prediction market, you "vote" with your money.

In a prediction market platform, traders are allowed to predict the outcome for any event. In the case of two outcomes, binary YES / No which means, event will happen or not. All of the multi outcome events such as who will win the Noble Peace Price in 2025, there may be potential candidates, but all of them can be decomposed to binary of each of its own. The main idea of prediction market is to trade your belief! If you predict the outcome of event to happen, then you buy its relative shares and after the finality of the event, if the same outcome happened, you get paid!

• Skin in the Game: Because traders profit from being right and lose money for being wrong, the market price often reflects the most accurate aggregate wisdom of the crowd.

Current Platforms:

• Price = Probability: The price of an outcome (e.g., "YES") ranges from $0.00 to $1.00. A price of $0.60 means the market believes there is a 60% chance the event will happen.

Why Crypto?

Traditional prediction markets (like Kalshi or PredictIt) are often limited by:

• Geography: Restricted to US residents only.
• Limits: Caps on how much you can bet (e.g., $850 limit).
• Fees: High withdrawal and trading fees.
• Censorship: Centralized operators can freeze funds or cancel markets.

Foresure is built on the Base Blockchain, which enables:

1. Global Access: Anyone with an internet connection can participate.
2. No Limits: Trade as much as liquidity allows.
3. Instant Settlement: Smart contracts execute payouts automatically. No human can block your withdrawal.
4. Self-Custody: You never deposit funds into a "Foresure Account". Your money stays in your wallet until you trade.

Is my money safe?

• Non-Custodial: We don't hold your funds. You trade directly from your wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet).
• Audited: Our smart contracts are audited by top security firms (Details will be shared soon).
• Transparent: Every transaction is visible on the BASE Chain.

TIP

While the protocol is secure, crypto prices and market outcomes are volatile. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.